Possible consequences of climate change concern both changes in long-term mean values of runoff and changes in frequency and magnitude of extreme runoff events. The physical safety of dams and protection against floods are not sensitive to the moderate changes in mean values but to the frequency and magnitude of extremes. This study presents the results of the analyses of the changes in the behavior of the extreme runoff values due to observed changes of temperature and precipitation. Statistical parameters of the magnitude of floods as well as their intensity have been studied. An attempt is also made to establish regional probability distribution curves for the frequencies of the extreme floods for different patterns of changes in the climatic variables considered.
- Received September 14, 1992.
- Revision received January 3, 1993.
- Accepted January 6, 1993.
- © IWA Publishing 1993