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Estimating the index flood with continuous hydrological models: an application in Great Britain

Giuseppe Formetta, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Elizabeth Stewart, Victoria Bell
Available Online 7 June 2017, nh2017251; DOI: 10.2166/nh.2017.251
Giuseppe Formetta
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK E-mail: giufor@nerc.ac.uk
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Ilaria Prosdocimi
Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK
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Elizabeth Stewart
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK E-mail: giufor@nerc.ac.uk
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Victoria Bell
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK E-mail: giufor@nerc.ac.uk
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Abstract

Estimating peak river discharge, a critical issue in engineering hydrology, is essential for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams and bridges. In the UK, practitioners typically apply the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) statistical method which estimates the design flood as the product of a relatively frequent flow estimate (the index flood, IF) and a regional growth factor. For gauged catchments the IF is estimated from observations. For ungauged catchments it is computed through a multiple regression model. While the FEH IF method provides peak flow estimates that are statistically robust, it does not readily take into account catchment heterogeneity or effect of environmental change on river flows. This study presents a new methodology to estimate the IF at national scale using continuous simulation from a physically based hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid). The methodology is tested across Great Britain and compares well with IF estimates at 550 gauging stations (R2 = 0.91). The promising results for Great Britain support the aspiration that continuous simulation from large-scale hydrological models coupled with increasing availability of global weather and climate products, could be used to estimate design floods in regions with limited gauge data or affected by environmental change.

  • flood frequency analysis
  • index flood estimation
  • large-scale hydrological modelling
  • First received 26 October 2016.
  • Accepted in revised form 17 April 2017.
  • © IWA Publishing 2017

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SELECTED ISSUE

Hydrology Research: 49 (2)
  Volume 49,issue 2

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Estimating the index flood with continuous hydrological models: an application in Great Britain
Giuseppe Formetta, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Elizabeth Stewart, Victoria Bell
Hydrology Research Jun 2017, nh2017251; DOI: 10.2166/nh.2017.251
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Estimating the index flood with continuous hydrological models: an application in Great Britain
Giuseppe Formetta, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Elizabeth Stewart, Victoria Bell
Hydrology Research Jun 2017, nh2017251; DOI: 10.2166/nh.2017.251

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Keywords

Flood frequency analysis
index flood estimation
large-scale hydrological modelling
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